The global coffee industry is undergoing profound shifts, influenced by price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and evolving consumer preferences. Despite these challenges, Uganda’s coffee sector continues to expand, driven by rising production, a flourishing local coffee culture, and strong global market integration. Meanwhile, emerging markets in Asia and Europe are reshaping global supply and demand, presenting both opportunities and competitive pressures for producers. With a steadfast commitment to quality and sustainability, Uganda is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends and strengthen its role as a key player in the international coffee trade.

Global Coffee Market Trends

The global coffee market is experiencing unprecedented price fluctuations, primarily due to adverse weather conditions affecting major coffee-producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam. In 2025, Arabica coffee prices surged by 70%, reaching levels not seen since 1977. Extreme weather events have reduced yields, exerting significant pressure on supply chains and driving up costs for both producers and consumers. Supply chain disruptions—stemming from shipping delays, labor shortages, and escalating transportation costs—are further compounding challenges for producers and roasters alike. These pressures are increasing production costs and heightening the risk of supply shortages. Nevertheless, global coffee demand remains robust, particularly in emerging markets, ensuring steady growth despite these hurdles.

Uganda’s Coffee Industry Developments

As Africa’s leading coffee exporter, Uganda is undergoing key structural adjustments while maintaining steady growth. The phasing out of the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) at the end of 2024 has initiated a transition period, with full oversight shifting to the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry, and Fisheries (MAAIF). Coffee value chain stakeholders are closely monitoring the implications of this shift. At the farm level, rising coffee prices are incentivizing farmers to adopt improved agricultural practices, and favorable crop conditions are expected to enhance productivity. Domestic coffee consumption is also on the rise, with Uganda’s local market expected to grow by 1.2%, reaching 330,000 bags in 2024/25. This growth is fueled by an expanding coffee culture, particularly in urban centers like Kampala, where cafés and specialty coffee outlets are attracting younger consumers.

Emerging Markets in Asia and Europe

Asia is rapidly emerging as a key market for global coffee producers, with countries in the middle East experiencing a surge in coffee consumption. Changing consumer habits, rising disposable incomes, and increasing urbanization are fueling demand, particularly among the growing middle class. This trend presents a significant opportunity for Uganda to expand its exports and establish a stronger presence in these high-growth markets. In Europe, the demand for EUDR Compliant high-quality and sustainably sourced coffee is on the rise. Uganda, known for its distinct flavor profiles and commitment to sustainability, is well-positioned to meet this demand, making Europe a critical destination for its coffee exports.